"We are building a new energy mix – based on renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. We are taking a holistic approach – introducing favorable changes for prosumers, creating a framework for the development of onshore wind energy, and ensuring the construction of smart energy grids," wrote the Ministry of Climate and Environment on its website in July 2024.

Indeed, in recent years, several initiatives have been undertaken to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) and introduce nuclear energy into the national energy mix. However, as noted by the Energy Forum in its latest report on Poland’s energy transition (2024 edition), the changes remain insufficient. The improvements, while noticeable, are fragmented, and a comprehensive approach is still lacking. Progress is visible, for example, in the power sector, but in other sectors such as district heating or industry, little is happening. Moreover, many actions are driven more by mega-trends and market conditions than by a coherent and conscious strategy for transformation.

So, where do we stand? Progress, challenges, and plans:

The energy mix is changing – coal's share has dropped (by as much as 10 percentage points compared to the previous year), now accounting for 61% of electricity production. The share of renewables is steadily increasing, mainly due to wind farms and photovoltaics (RES now account for over 40% of installed capacity and 27% of electricity production). Poland’s ambition is to generate 50% of its electricity from RES by 2030.

Photovoltaics is the largest renewable energy source in Poland. Last year’s 40% year-on-year increase in installed capacity was historically high and significantly exceeded market expectations. According to the Institute for Renewable Energy, most of the new capacity came from PV farms above 30 MW. It’s also worth noting that Poland is one of the fastest-growing photovoltaic markets in Europe. For a long time, this strong position was due to prosumer PV installations up to 50 kW and the ongoing “My Electricity” subsidy program (although the growth dynamics here are now slowing).

The transition from coal to RES and nuclear energy requires massive investments and infrastructure changes. Poland has ambitious plans, including the development of offshore wind energy and the construction of a nuclear power plant, as outlined in the Polish Energy Policy until 2040. The first offshore wind farms in Poland's exclusive economic zone on the Baltic Sea are expected to begin generating power as early as 2026. By 2030, offshore wind farms are projected to account for 13% of electricity generation, rising to 19% by 2040.

As for nuclear power, in late August 2024, the Polish Nuclear Power Plants company (PEJ) submitted an application for a permit to begin preparatory work for building the country’s first nuclear power plant. The first concrete is planned to be poured in 2028, with the first large-scale nuclear plant likely to be operational around 2040.

Emissions:

Poland’s power sector remains the most carbon-intensive in the entire EU, generating the highest CO₂ emissions per unit of electricity produced. This unfortunately affects not only air quality but also results in high energy prices and reduced competitiveness of Polish products due to their high carbon footprint.

Energy infrastructure:

Current infrastructure is often not adapted to integrating large amounts of RES. Inflexible coal-fired units cannot operate at sufficiently low minimum levels during sunny afternoons. There is also a near-total lack of energy storage. This combination forces grid operators to limit renewable energy production. Thus, modernization and development of energy grids, including the construction of smart grids capable of managing the variable nature of RES, are essential to improve energy security and optimize RES usage. The National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management is currently working on a new subsidy program for thermal energy storage.

A key change over the past two years has been the acceleration of diversification of Poland’s energy import sources. One of the most important steps was the commissioning of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście, enabling the import of liquefied natural gas from various parts of the world. Poland also invested in new cross-border connections with Lithuania, Slovakia, Denmark, and Norway, allowing gas imports via the Baltic Pipe. These efforts enabled Poland to completely cease gas imports from Russia, which happened in April 2022. These steps have not only enhanced Poland’s energy security but also reduced dependence on a single supplier, which is particularly important in the geopolitical context.

Legal changes:

In 2023, several legal amendments were introduced to support the energy transition. The amendment to the Energy Law introduced the possibility of signing contracts with dynamic pricing, the concept of Citizen Energy Communities (CECs), direct lines, and online price comparison tools for energy suppliers. These changes aim to increase market flexibility, improve energy efficiency, and reduce energy costs.

The year 2023 was also a breakthrough for wind energy – the Act on Investments in Wind Power Plants was amended. The general 10H rule was abolished and replaced by a minimum distance rule of 500 meters. The regulations on siting wind turbines near national parks and some Natura 2000 areas were also modified. Liberalizing siting rules for onshore wind farms aims to boost the use of wind energy.

Favorable solutions for prosumers were also introduced – including changes to the net-billing system. The amendment to the RES Act, with proposed changes in prosumer settlement systems, is expected to further support the dynamic and sustainable development of RES.

The update of the National Energy and Climate Plan for 2030 is underway. The plan covers five key dimensions: energy security, internal energy market, energy efficiency, emission reduction, and research, innovation, and competitiveness. The Ministry of Climate and Environment is planning extensive public consultations to include feedback from various stakeholder groups in the final version of the document (pre-consultations were held a few days ago).

To sum up, Poland’s energy mix is undergoing dynamic changes, driven both by new legal regulations and significant investments in renewable energy sources. In the face of global challenges related to environmental protection and sustainable development, Poland is pursuing an energy transition aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels, lowering CO₂ emissions, and enhancing the country’s energy security.

Sources:

• https://www.gov.pl/web/klimat/uwalniamy-moc-oze
• Transformacja energetyczna w Polsce. Edycja 2024 - Forum Energii (forum-energii.eu)
• Prekonsultacje projektu aktualizacji Krajowego Planu w dziedzinie Energii i Klimatu do 2030 roku - Ministerstwo Klimatu i Środowiska - Portal Gov.pl (www.gov.pl)
• https://www.gov.pl/web/morska-energetyka-wiatrowa/program-rozwoju-morskich-farm-wiatrowych
• https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/pierwsza-elektrownia-atomowa-w-polsce-kiedy-poczatek-budowy
• https://biznes.wprost.pl/firmy-i-rynki/11240527/tak-wyglada-dywersyfikacja-dostaw-gazu-ziemnego-do-polski.html

Anna Barbaruk

ESG Institute Sp. z o. o.

info@esginstitute.eu

Rondo ONZ 1,
00-124 Warszawa

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